MersV1, France, Analysis, bibRecord, 000112

Assessment of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) epidemic in the Middle East and risk of international spread using a novel maximum likelihood analysis approach.

Identifieur interne : 000112 ( France/Analysis ); précédent : 000111; suivant : 000113

Assessment of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) epidemic in the Middle East and risk of international spread using a novel maximum likelihood analysis approach.

Auteurs : C. Poletto [France] ; C. Pelat ; D. Levy-Bruhl ; Y. Yazdanpanah ; P Y Boelle ; V. Colizza

Source :

Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin [ 1560-7917 ] ; 2014.

RBID : pubmed:24957746

Descripteurs français

KwdFr :
- Coronavirus (isolement et purification), Fonctions de vraisemblance, Humains, Infections de l'appareil respiratoire (transmission), Infections de l'appareil respiratoire (épidémiologie), Infections à coronavirus (transmission), Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie), Moyen Orient (épidémiologie), Réservoirs d'agents pathogènes (virologie), Santé mondiale, Épidémies (), Évaluation des risques.
MESH :
- isolement et purification : Coronavirus.
- virologie : Réservoirs d'agents pathogènes.
- épidémiologie : Infections de l'appareil respiratoire, Infections à coronavirus, Moyen Orient.
- Fonctions de vraisemblance, Humains, Santé mondiale, Épidémies, Évaluation des risques.

English descriptors

KwdEn :
- Coronavirus (isolation & purification), Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (transmission), Disease Reservoirs (virology), Epidemics (statistics & numerical data), Global Health, Humans, Likelihood Functions, Middle East (epidemiology), Respiratory Tract Infections (epidemiology), Respiratory Tract Infections (transmission), Risk Assessment.
MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Middle East.
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Respiratory Tract Infections.
- isolation & purification : Coronavirus.
- statistics & numerical data : Epidemics.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections, Respiratory Tract Infections.
- virology : Disease Reservoirs.
- Global Health, Humans, Likelihood Functions, Risk Assessment.

Abstract

The emergence of the novel Middle East (ME) respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) has raised global public health concerns regarding the current situation and its future evolution. Here we propose an integrative maximum likelihood analysis of both cluster data in the ME and importations in a set of European countries to assess the transmission scenario and incidence of sporadic infections. Our approach is based on a spatial-transmission model integrating mobility data worldwide and allows for variations in the zoonotic/environmental transmission and under-ascertainment. Maximum likelihood estimates for the ME, considering outbreak data up to 31 August 2013, indicate the occurrence of a subcritical epidemic with a reproductive number R of 0.50 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.30-0.77) associated with a daily rate of sporadic introductions psp of 0.28 (95% CI: 0.12-0.85). Infections in the ME appear to be mainly dominated by zoonotic/environmental transmissions, with possible under-ascertainment (ratio of estimated to observed (0.116) sporadic cases equal to 2.41, 95% CI: 1.03-7.32). No time evolution of the situation emerges. Analyses of flight passenger data from ME countries indicate areas at high risk of importation. While dismissing an immediate threat for global health security, this analysis provides a baseline scenario for future reference and updates, suggests reinforced surveillance to limit under-ascertainment, and calls for alertness in high importation risk areas worldwide.

DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es2014.19.23.20824
PubMed: 24957746

Affiliations:

Links to Exploration step

pubmed:24957746

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Serveur d'exploration MERS

Assessment of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) epidemic in the Middle East and risk of international spread using a novel maximum likelihood analysis approach.

Assessment of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) epidemic in the Middle East and risk of international spread using a novel maximum likelihood analysis approach.

Source :

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)

Links to Exploration step

Le document en format XML

Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)

Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri

Pour générer des pages wiki

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